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Scientific football predictions of 02-08-2015

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In a series of probable events, as in case of sports betting, of which the ones produce a benefit and the others a loss, we shall have the advantage which results from it by making a sum of the products of the probability of each favorable event, as a winning tip, by the benefit which it procures, and subtracting from this sum that of the products of the probability of each unfavorable event by the loss which is attached to it. If the second sum is greater than the first, the benefit becomes a loss and hope is changed to fear.
Consequently we ought always in the conduct of life, also in the formulation of betting tips, to make the product of the benefit hoped for, by it probability, at least equal to the similar product relative to the loss. But it is necessary, in order to attain this, to appreciate exactly the advantages, the losses, and their respective probabilities.
For this a great accuracy of mind, a delicate judgment, a great experience in affairs and a reliable scientific model is necessary; to provide the best sport betting predictions it is necessary to know how to guard one's self against prejudices, illusions of fear or hope, and erroneous ideas, ideas of fortune and happiness, with which the majority of people feed their selflove.

Pierre Simon De Laplace
A philosophical essay on probabilities (1814)


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